Zespri stands by auspicious 2024 export forecast

Overview of kiwifruit in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on February 26, 2024.

New Zealand kiwifruit giant Zespri released positive projections for its 2023-24 season, in line with the company’s previous forecast of 193 million trays. This comes after challenging financial results in 2022-23, when the company faced multiple weather woes, as well as labor shortage and increased input costs.

CEO Dan Mathieson says the company has been able to leverage challenges in the market to secure greater value and offset losses.

“It’s particularly pleasing to see a real lift in our Green returns,” Mathieson said in a Feb. 21 press release. “That’s been driven by the increased value our teams have secured from lower volumes, especially in Europe, as well as strong market performance in Japan and North America.”

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The sector has kept its hopes high. This season’s crop is expected to increase significantly from the 133 million trays shipped last season, and even surpass the record 175 million trays exported in 2021, which saw global revenue jump 16% to $2.84 billion.

Zespri said that it anticipates favorable tray returns for its Green, Organic Green, SunGold and RubyRed branded kiwifruit. They are all forecast to surpass last season’s Orchard Gate Return (OGR), the industry metric to determine pay rates to orchardists per tray.

Forecast OGRs per hectare for all categories have increased against the previous forecast. Green and SunGold forecast OGRs are now above final 2022 season returns.

“The February forecast has Green at a record $9.44 per tray. SunGold Kiwifruit returns are also at a record level of $12.62 per tray, while Organic SunGold Kiwifruit is at $14.21. For Zespri RubyRed Kiwifruit, the forecast average per tray return is at a record $26.54,” the release said.

All categories, other than Organic SunGold, were expected to deliver record per-tray returns. Traditional varieties SunGold Kiwifruit and RubyRed Kiwifruit show “strong demand,” the company said.  RubyRed Kiwifruit should be the first to arrive in international markets this season.

CEO Dan Mathieson credited the sector’s value chain for the lift in fruit quality and cost reduction, which created proper conditions for this upcoming 2024 season’s green numbers.

“As well as the focus on per tray returns,” Mathieson said, “we’re also looking forward to seeing improved per hectare returns for growers in the coming season, with our February crop estimate showing a strong improvement in expected yields.”

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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