After a year of grape disruption, California expects to bounce back

Overview of table grape from California in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on April 25, 2024.

Following a challenging 2023 season, California’s grape industry is looking forward to favorable weather and growing conditions for the season starting this May. 

Hurricane Hilary in August 2023 had severe effects on California’s table grape volumes, with a loss of around 25 million boxes, 35% of total production. David Espinoza of Hronis Inc. said an event like this, with such a major effect on the table grape industry, had not occurred in the state in over 50 years. 

“For the moment, vine counts are very similar to last year, bud break has been very even and temperatures have been favorable for plant development and phenological stages,” he said.

Espinoza said initial estimates for the state are 90 million boxes of total production as a minimum. 

Initial projections after Hurricane Hilary last year estimated a total production of 72 million boxes for the state. Kathleen Nave, president of the California Table Grape Commission, said the last time the crop was under 75 million boxes was 1994. 

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Mexico supply

Mexico is currently in season and estimated 24 million boxes for export to the U.S.

The Jalisco region, a growing player for green grapes between the late Chilean and early California campaigns, has not put out official production estimates. 

Sonora remains Mexico’s top table grape producer, with importers estimating 22-24 million boxes to the United States. Last season, Sonora’s grape deal entered the market late, due to weather complications, causing one of many U.S. supply chain gaps throughout 2023 and 2024.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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