World apple production recovering in 2024

Overview of apples in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on December 22, 2023.

Global apple production is forecasted slightly up to 83.1 million tons, as recovering supplies in China, South Africa, and the U.S. offset losses in the European Union and Turkey, the USDA reports. With this, the sector is hoping for a rebound in 2024, after a 5% decrease in 2023’s volumes.

U.S. production is projected up 56,000 tons for a 4.4 million total, with good growing conditions spurring a recovery in Washington state output following last year’s damaging spring weather. The state remains the biggest producer in the U.S.

Greater supplies are expected to boost exports by 209,000 tons to 820,000, with shipments up for the majority of U.S. markets, including top destination, Mexico. 

Additionally, the removal of India’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. apples, which became effective Sep. 5, is expected to improve shipments to said market.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

As for U.S. imports, they are expected to remain near historical levels, edging up slightly to 110,000 tons on greater shipments from Southern Hemisphere suppliers.

Chinese production is also forecast up 500,000 tons to 45.0 million as higher output in the provinces of Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Liaoning more than offsets frost and temperature related losses in Shandong and Gansu provinces. 

However, acreage continues to decline due to a policy encouraging or requiring certain farmland be used for other agricultural products. However, growers are working to optimize production in existing orchards, and it is estimated that nearly 20% of the country’s apple growing area is now made up of high density plantings of dwarf trees.

EU production is expected to slip 475,000 tons to 12.2 million due to higher than normal fruitdrop and cold temperatures during bloom, which caused poor pollination, including in top producer Poland. Quality is expected to be good with output in France and Spain Improving on recovery from last year’s prolonged high temperatures.

South African volumes are anticipated to rise 80,000 tons to 1.2 million on good growing conditions, as well as output from new plantings coming into full production. Quality is also expected to improve over last year’s hail damaged crop. 

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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