WAPA revises Northern Hemisphere apple and pear forecast
From
| 23 October 2023
Overview of apples and pears in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on October 19, 2023.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) announced a revision of its August crop estimates, with further declines projected for both crops.
While apple harvesting will continue for several weeks, based on the first regional adjustments WAPA estimates that the 2023 apple crop will settle at just below 11 million tons.
This is about 4% lower than the original forecast.
In regard to pears, a further decline of the forecast in Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands will lead to a lower crop, even lower than in 2021.
The final pear crop is expected to be around 1,720,000 tons, about 6% below the initial forecast
The early estimate is released during the Prognosfruit conference in August, when harvesting is about to start. The crop can still be impacted by nature and climatic factors up to late October, with either a positive or negative impact on crop quantity and quality.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Historically, these forecast adjustments amounted to small percentage variations, WAPA says in a release.
The first updates from Prognosfruit’s network of national producing associations indicate that climate change related conditions negatively affected the crop in the weeks following the publication of the original estimates.
The climatic havoc included droughts, floodings, hail, warm nights, and an increased risk of pests across the EU. In other cases, rains and colder nights have positively impacted the size development and coloring respectively in some producing regions.
The first EU apple estimates, released Aug. 3, indicated a 3.3% decrease year-on-year to a total of 11,410,681 tones. As for pears, the EU crop was estimated to decrease by 12.9% compared to last year’s with a total of 1,745,632 tons.
The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.
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