Rain brings positive California avocado forecast

Overview of avocados from California in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on February 29, 2024.

The California avocado industry is gearing up for what promises to be an auspicious season, with the California Avocado Commission (CAC) forecasting 208 million pounds to be produced by the Golden State in the 2024-25 season.

Terry Splane, the commission’s vice president of marketing, told FreshFruitPortal.com that abundant rains have provided a boost in production. He expects more favorable weather to come.

“[Rain] gives energy to the fruit, and we lacked a little bit of rain last year, which is why the crop was down. We had kind of a cool season post-rain, and what the trees really like after the rainy season is heat,” Splane said.

The sector has experienced fluctuating growth in the past decade. While productive acres decreased by 17% from 2012 to 2022, crop value has increased by almost 12%, according to the 2022 CAC report.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Strong local demand

California avocados remain mostly at home, as the state’s 30 million plus inhabitants make up for approximately 50% of the crop’s final consumers.

“Eighty percent of our avocados are in the Western region, 50% in California, and 30% in the rest of the Western region. So, that’s where most of our avocados go”, Splane said, explaining sales distribution.

Hass avocados represent roughly 95% of production in California. Current field quotes for conventional Hass range from a high of $1.36 for size 32 fruit to a low of $0.43 for size 84.

The GEM variety, however, shows great promise to supplement the market, the executive said. The smaller, thicker-skin fruit is less susceptible to wind damage and is also high-yielding.

“This year, we’re projecting about 5 million pounds of GEM, so in one year, it’s more than doubled,” Splane said. “The fruit is protected inside a canopy, and it also uses, as I understand it, less water, so there are some sustainability practices associated.”

New marketing approach

Because of its elevated water usage, growing avocados is commonly associated with less-than-friendly environmental practices. Despite the crop’s bad rap, Splane said, California avocados are known for being sustainably grown. 

“This is [known] through studies that we do every year,” he said. “Sixty percent of consumers already believe that California avocados are a sustainable choice.”

This all falls in line with CAC’s new marketing strategy, which was announced during the second annual International Fresh Produce Association’s Global Produce & Floral Show in October 2023.

“We’ve adjusted how we do consumer PR. We are getting back into the groves and into what really differentiates California from the rest of the countries of origin,” Splane said.

Messaging around the health benefits and deliciousness of avocados will continue, he said, but those characteristics aren’t unique to the California product. What does stand out, he said, is the state’s dedication and reputation for supporting sustainable farming practices.

All photos courtesy of the California Avocado Commission.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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