Index Fresh Shares Avocado Forecast for 2023; Steve Roodzant and Keith Blanchard Comment

From And Now u Know | 19 January 2023

Overview of avocados in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on January 17, 2023. 

CORONA, CA – 2023 knows no bounds, and the category growth we can achieve this year is limitless. Sharing in-depth predictions for the 2023 avocado market, Index Fresh is reflecting on a successful 2022 while looking toward another year of growth.

“Avocados are the produce section darlings,” said Index Fresh Chief Executive Officer Steve Roodzant. “Last year, avocado shortages drove prices up and resulted in California growers collecting a phenomenal $1.76 per pound for their delicious fruit. This year, heavy supply is likely to push prices lower.”

avocado prices by histor 2

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Index Fresh is working to keep California growers informed and positioned to benefit from the best possible pricing windows amid potentially crowded market conditions, a press release explained, as heavy volumes of avocado imports are expected in the U.S. in 2023.

While the 2022 avocado market was defined by a light avocado crop out of Mexico, the grower reports that this year’s crop is large, and Mexico expects to export 16 percent more avocado volume into the U.S. in 2023.

In 2023, the U.S. is expected to consume 3 billion pounds of avocados, a record-breaking volume made up of imports from Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile, as well as domestic production of California avocados.

avocado volumes by origi 2

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

“Additionally, California avocados traditionally occupy a special market niche thanks to their excellent quality and the value that consumers increasingly place on locally sourced produce,” said Keith Blanchard, California Field Manager. “The baseline price of avocados may be lower now than at the start of 2022, but we are confident that California avocados will continue to fetch a premium in 2023.”

Given heavy avocado volumes out of Mexico, this year’s California season is expected to launch with light harvesting in January and then increase to peak harvest in April through July, the release also noted. California Avocado Commission’s pre-crop estimates show that the state is on track to harvest approximately 257 million pounds of avocados in 2023, 7 percent fewer pounds than in 2022.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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