California Avocado Commission announces 2023-24 crop forecast

Overview of avocados from California in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on January 30, 2024.

The official crop forecast for the California Avocado Commission’s (CAC) fiscal year 2023-24 is 208 million pounds, down from the prior year’s volume of 237 million pounds.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Weather and market conditions will be key factors for when California avocado growers begin harvesting, said the Commission in a release. The potential for a wet winter may encourage some growers to delay picking to allow their avocados time to increase in size, which could in turn increase the crop volume.

“The California Avocado Commission, customers, and avocado lovers are eagerly anticipating locally and ethically grown California avocados in stores, on menus, and plates,” says CAC Vice President of Marketing Terry Splane. “Some very early season harvesting has occurred already and we’re anticipating the volume to ramp up in March and April.”

The majority (196 million pounds) of the premium California avocado harvest will be the Hass variety. The Lamb Hass variety is expected to contribute 6 million pounds, GEM 5 million pounds and another 1 million pounds will come from other varieties commercially grown in California.

“The recent rain in California avocado growing regions followed by a period of sunny days is excellent for the health of our avocado trees and sizing of the fruit,” says Jason Cole, chairman of the California Avocado Commission Board of Directors. “We are looking forward to the harvest, which has already started in a minor way, to ramp up once fruit sizing and market conditions are favorable.”

The Commission says it supports all California avocado varieties, and in concert with its new agency of record, Curious Plot, is introducing a new consumer advertising campaign. The creative, which is in production now, focuses tightly on the California Avocados brand and is centered on locally grown and sustainability messaging.

CAC is introducing an expanded trade support program, which includes retail and food service promotions aimed at reaching targeted customers. Key components of California avocado marketing support for these promotions include video content for both retail customers and California avocado social media platforms, geotargeted advertising aimed at consumers near stores merchandising the fruit, and traditional retail and food service marketing tactics.

“The Commission is meeting with California avocado growers, handlers, and customers now to plan the who/where and when for this season’s amplified trade programs,” said Splane. “Peak availability of premium avocados from the Golden State is expected from May through July.”

CAC’s social media program runs year-round and ramps up leading into the season.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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