Agronometrics Shorts: USDA Estimates a 7% Dip in Pricing for Thanksgiving Pies as Apple Prices Fall

According to a visualization recently published by the USDA, U.S. consumers baking a homemade apple pie for Thanksgiving this year can expect to pay about $8.15 for the ingredients, a decrease of 7.0 percent from last year. This decrease has been primarily caused by a decrease in the price of the main ingredient, Granny Smith apples, the prices for which fell 18 percent from $0.80 per pound in week 46 of 2022 to $0.65 per pound in 2023. “There’s so much opportunity for promotions on apples this year, especially compared to last year when we saw tight supplies on key items. The October data shows retails starting to shift down, with a 14-cent reduction on the average price per pound of the top dollar driver in the apple category, Honeycrisp. With all apples harvested, now is the time to focus on multi-variety promotions and growth in apple volumes over last year. Dollar growth will come as volumes in the category increase,” says Stemilt Marketing Director Brianna Shales. According to Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, “to go down to 104 million (in 2022) was a big drop-off, we’re back to more of the normal range, which is good news for our growers and anyone who likes to eat apples.” Washington apple growers produce more than 60% of U.S. apples. Granny Smith apples are expected to constitute 13.8% of the crop from Washington this year. Gala remains the top apple variety in Washington, but the most significant increase in volume came from Honeycrisp, which has gained a strong following over the past two decades. An estimate from August predicted that 14.6% of the crop, or 19.6 million boxes, would be Honeycrisp, making it the second-highest variety. A survey from September indicated a 13.8% increase in yields from the earlier estimate. Cosmic Crisp is expected to make up about 5.9% of the crop, or about 7.9 million boxes. Red Delicious is projected to make up 13% of the 2023 crop. Another top variety is Fuji at 11.7%.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Written by Sarah Ilyas