Agronometrics Shorts: Peru’s Season Comes in Dramatically Lower than Expected. What Lies Ahead?

The Blueberry Annual report, recently published by the USDA, provides insights into Peru’s blueberry export dynamics, particularly focusing on the challenges faced in 2023. According to the report, for the marketing year 2023/24 (spanning from May 2023 to April 2024), Peruvian blueberry production is anticipated to reach 195,000 metric tons (MT).

The report notes a significant decrease in exports compared to the previous marketing year, with exports expected to reach only 165,000 MT, marking a considerable 43% drop. Our calculations, which assume relatively similar exported volumes for March, April, May, and June compared to the 2022/23 season, suggest that the season is likely to close with a 28% decrease in export volume. For the upcoming season, Luis Miguel Vegas, former manager of Proarándanos indicates that everything points towards an increase in blueberry volume in the Peruvian industry this year. “It is still premature to determine how much more volume there will be; we must wait a few weeks to have a clearer projection for Peru’s volume in the upcoming season. However, all signs indicate there will be more volume than in the previous campaign. What I cannot assure is whether there will be more volume than two campaigns ago; it is too early to tell,” Luis says. An important consideration for next year’s production will be the pruning strategy that companies took towards the end of the 2023/2024 season. Along with delayed production due the El niño, it is believed that a reduction in pruning helped account for over production observed in December and January. This will likely have an effect on next year’s production as pruning will in turn dictate when the next production will be ready for harvest, potentially delaying Peru´s harvest once again.

Written by: Sarah Ilyas