Agronometrics in Charts: US Peach and Nectarine Production Projected to Drop to its Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years

According to a recently published World Markets and Trade report published by the USDA, the forecast for U.S. peach and nectarine production in 2023/24 is 574,000 metric tons. Over the past five years, production has remained relatively stable, ranging between 650,000 and 710,000 tons. However, adverse weather conditions in key producing states are expected to push supplies below this range in 2023/24. California’s peach crop is anticipated to decline due to extended bloom caused by substantial rain and cool temperatures, while early blooms followed by March freezes are projected to reduce production in South Carolina and Georgia. This forecast marks a continuation of the declining trend that began in 2011/12, with production dropping below 1.0 million tons in 2013/14 for the first time in decades, a trend particularly pronounced in California.

According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), California accounts for an average 80 percent of U.S. output, and nearly 100 percent of peaches for processing. The overarching reduction in peach production can be attributed to diminishing demand for processed peaches, particularly Clingstone peaches, which are predominantly earmarked for processing purposes and have witnessed a substantial 43 percent decline in volume. Furthermore, in the 2022/23 season, California experienced a nectarine production decline that marked the first instance of the state falling below the 100,000-ton threshold since the early 1970s. This decline can be attributed to crop damage stemming from adverse meteorological conditions such as rain, hail, and near-freezing temperatures. These deleterious weather patterns have collectively driven U.S. peach and nectarine production to its lowest levels in decades, exacerbating the already reduced volumes resulting from declining market demand.

While a short-term resurgence in U.S. output above 600,000 tons appears likely, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain. It remains to be seen whether the longer-term downward trajectory in production can be effectively addressed.