Agronometrics in Charts: Mexico’s 2024 Blueberry Production Forecast Pegged at 81,000 MT – USDA

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Mexican blueberry season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the Blueberry Annual Voluntary report recently published by the USDA, Mexico’s 2024 blueberry production is forecast at 81,000 MT, an eight percent increase over 2023, owing to sufficient access to water and growing export demand. The rate of production growth is projected to be slower in 2024 compared to 2023 due to competition from Peru. Production in 2023 reached an estimated 74,800 MT, a twelve percent increase over the previous year due to production innovations and strong export demand.

In a broader agricultural context, berries, comprising blueberries, strawberries, blackberries, and raspberries, have consistently secured top spots among Mexico’s agricultural exports over the past three years. Statistical data from the Secretariat of Economy reveals that berries were ranked second among Mexico’s food exports in 2022, boasting a valuation exceeding USD 3.6 billion. Benefiting from the provisions of the USMCA trade agreement, Mexico enjoys duty-free access for its blueberry exports to the United States and Canada. The United States stands as the preeminent blueberry export market for Mexico, commanding an impressive share of nearly 97 percent.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Despite prevailing drought conditions across Mexico, local producers assert that the berry sector is poised to evade the effects of the water shortages in the imminent future (1-3 years). The sector stands fortified with highly efficient irrigation systems, including private reservoirs, and substantial operating funds.

Mexico’s harvest historically began in early October, peaking between late April and early May. In contrast, industry sources report that for the 2024 harvest, producers have taken steps to delay the start of the harvest to early February in response to competition from Peru, which offers a similar product at lower prices during the October-January period. Confronted with this competitive landscape, Mexican growers have undertaken measures to shift the growing season by postponing new plantings. This strategic realignment is anticipated to exert a dampening effect on overall production, considering the relatively substantial contribution of new plantings to the total planted area. 

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Producers are actively transitioning away from the Biloxi variety, capitalizing on the continual advancement of enhanced cultivars that offer superior yields and improved taste. Based on insights from farmer contacts, it was revealed that the Biloxi variety currently constitutes 23 percent of the blueberry area, whereas proprietary varieties encompass 74 percent. Anticipations are high that the share of Biloxi will undergo a significant reduction in the near (1-3 years) term. In combination with deferring new plantings, Mexican producers report that they are delaying fertilizer applications as another technique to push the harvest beyond the timeline for Peruvian harvests.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.
You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.

Written by Sarah Ilyas