Agronometrics in Charts: Higher Avocado supply likely to bring promotional prices in the US market

By Agronometrics | 25 October 2022

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Valeria Concha studies the state of the US avocado market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

During week 41, the avocado supply in the US market was 93.27% Mexican, coming from Michoacan and Jalisco. Hector Soltero, senior director of sales planning for Mission Produce said that the fruit is of high quality and the size curve is balanced across all sizes. Compared to last year at this time, the supply of avocados right now is higher. Soltero commented that this is primarily due to the nature of avocado crops as alternate bearing, meaning that the crop cycles year-over-year between high-quantity and low-quantity yields. 

In the meantime, demand looks as per usual for this time of year. “The fall months are typically a slower consumption period for avocados,” Soltero said. “However, with the anticipated strong supply, promotional pricing opportunities are expected. For example, retail promotions during the week of Labor Day this year supported a 10 percent lift in avocado sales volume compared to the prior week.” He adds that looking ahead, supplies are expected to continue to remain plentiful for the next few weeks out of Mexico.

According to the Crop Report published by MHAIA, with week 41 completed, the total harvested volume from Mexico has reached 290,518 tons, reaching 21% of the total projected harvest for the season. The current total ship-to-harvest ratio for Mexico is 89.4%.

avocado volumes by origi 11

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Currently, prices are reaching 2020 levels, however, we know that inflation has caused all the costs associated with crops to become more expensive. Through week 41, Hass avocados averaged $2.18 per kilo in the U.S. market.

avocado prices by histor 9

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The latest economic contribution analysis conducted by Texas A&M University during the 2021-2022 growing season, concludes that imports of Mexican Hass avocados continue to make substantial contributions to the U.S. and Mexican economies. As avocados move from U.S. ports of entry to wholesalers, distributors, processors, and final retail end points, they generate economic growth. In other words, Mexican Hass avocado imports to the US stimulate economic activity within the fruit’s supply chain itself and others that intersect it. The economic impact was also seen in Mexico, where 78,000 direct jobs and more than 300,000 indirect and temporary jobs were generated for more than 30,000 producers and 74 packers.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions.If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.Written by: Valeria Concha

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