The state of the global grape market

From Fresh Plaza | 20 October 2023

Overview of table grapes in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on October 17, 2023.

Vanguard International reports that the global grape market is currently experiencing significant shifts due to a series of unexpected weather events in key producing regions. These events have led to notable losses in some areas, impacting the overall supply and subsequently affecting market prices. Vanguard looks at the state of the grape market while recapping the seasons in Northern Peru, California, Chile and South Africa, and their repercussions on the global grape market.

California: California, a major grape-producing region, is potentially facing a staggering 50 percent loss in total crop yield. This significant reduction is attributed to a combination of factors, including unseasonably hot weather, wildfires and conditions experienced from Tropical Storm Hillary. The impact of these adverse events has been devastating, exacerbating the challenges already faced by the region. The resulting 40-50 percent loss in California’s grape production was one of the first dominoes felt through the global market.

Chile: Chile appears to have weathered the storm relatively well, with grapes looking healthy overall. While there was some rain, it is projected to have minimal impact on the crop. This is positive news for the market, as Chile plays a pivotal role in global grape exports. However, with ongoing shifts in weather patterns, it remains important to monitor the situation closely.

grape volumes by origin 3

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

South Africa: South Africa’s grape market is currently in a favorable position, with a good crop yield expected. Fortunately, it is anticipated that the hex rains will not significantly impact the region’s production. This stability in supply from South Africa provides a welcome contrast to the challenges faced by other key producing regions.

Northern Peru: Northern Peru, a crucial player in the global grape market, has encountered a substantial setback with a 20-25 percent loss in crop yield. Adverse weather conditions early in the season, including excessive rains and floods, created unfavorable conditions for grape production. This has led to a drop in volume and issues with mildew, affecting the quality of sweet globes. The result is a significant loss of over 9 million cartons, putting a strain on the global grape supply chain.

The increasing frequency of El Niño and La Niña events is undoubtedly affecting grape production globally. These climate phenomena introduce unpredictability into the growing conditions, making it challenging for growers and customers to anticipate yields accurately and resulting in a demand massively exceeding supply.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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