Q&A: ProHass President Paredes on industry trade

What is the total volume of production?

We are projecting that we are going to finish the campaign with 563,000 tons, compared to 554,000 tons last year, which will represent a 2% growth. Our initial forecast was a 14% increase.

What is the decrease in Peruvian fruit size?

Based on the information that our associates have shared, we expected sizes between 16, 18 and 20. But the curve has shifted more to sizes 20, 22 and 24.

If we take into account that the average size expected before was around 18 caliber and now we are moving to 22 caliber, this means that sizes dropped four points, which is more or less 20% less caliber.

The decrease in size has mostly occurred in the north of the country, since it is where the rising temperatures have been more critical. For the south, in Lima, Ica and Arequipa there has been no impact on size.

It is definitely something climatic. The trees loaded a lot of fruit and the rains stopped growth because the plant stops assimilating nutrients when it rains, as the roots saturate with water. So it is a specific event.

What is the growth of Peruvian avocado in China and what is that market potential?

China has had a very large growth, perhaps a little more than the market could tolerate.  We have had a growth of 80% in that market, going from 28,000 tons to 50,000 tons. We had the goal of not exceeding 60 containers per week, but we have had almost eight weeks of the year in which we have exceeded 100 containers per week, which has obviously put pressure on prices.

What is the state of shipments to the U.S., and what factors have contributed to the decline?

It is a very complex issue, which has many edges to it. Some are calling it an issue of quality perception. We do not believe that it is a quality issue, we think that the presence of Mexican fruit is too strong and with very close relationships with importers.

So it is a win-win for them to work with Mexican fruit, therefore the effort to enter with Peruvian fruit does not have much significance for U.S. supermarkets.

However, this 2023, Mexico has been in a very bad position with retailers, because it promised constant fruit throughout the year and the supermarkets took it to heart, but there were two months in which it ran out of production and the supermarkets have been left with that lesson learned. We believe that next year they will be more receptive to Peruvian fruit, due to the errors of the Mexican projection.

At the beginning of the season we were very optimistic about the low production that Mexico was going to have and the supermarkets were promised that the drop would not occur, which it did. Now we will see how the market behaves with respect to the credibility of the Mexican projections and a Peruvian fruit that is improving in quality every year.