Agronometrics Shorts: Precipitation impacts Lemon Supplies from Mexico, Chile and the US, Causing  Price Escalations

Heavy rainfall has affected lemon cultivation in Chile; it has also had ripple effects in Mexico and the United States. Paul González, from River City Produce noted, “The lemon supply from several regions such as Chile, Mexico and the US is scarce. Prices are not going down like they used to. ” Climate change has brought about extreme weather conditions, including rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and increased insect duress on crops. These changes are creating tough conditions for growers. As a result of these shifts, the start of the lemon season in District 3 of California was delayed, and lemon production is expected to drop by at least 15% compared to the previous year. These changes have pushed up lemon prices, which is good news for growers who have faced low prices recently. “It is a blessing that the market supply conditions are helping prices move closer to normal levels after three seasons of depressed prices,” says a California grower-shipper. Over the last three years, lemon prices have dropped by about $5 to $7 per box, mostly due to intense competition and the influx of imported lemons in the U.S. market. Coupled with increasing costs associated with lemon farming and distribution, this has made it tough for lemon growers to turn a profit in recent years. In this challenging environment, retailers and the food service sector play a vital role in supporting the lemon industry. The demand for lemons is relatively stable, even as prices rise, owing to their versatility and health benefits. Lemon consumption has been steadily increasing for the past 15 years, driven by their multiple culinary uses and perceived health advantages, which continues to boost demand.