Blueberries

Agronometrics Shorts: Has the Peruvian Blueberry Season Reached its Peak?

By Agronometrics | 10 November 2023

The average daily prices of Blueberries in the US plunged by 10.64% in week 45, marking a $1.59 decrease on the last report on November 3, from $14.95 to $13.36. This comes after weeks of elevated prices as the El Niño phenomenon took a toll on blueberry production in Peru. “This is the first time in this industry’s history where we have had such a large contraction of supply, because of how big Peru has gotten, globally,” says Kasey Cronquist, the president of both the US Highbush Blueberry Council and the North American Blueberry Council. Comparing the import volumes of Peruvian blueberries into the US market via USDA data and the Peruvian blueberry exports to the US via our Global Trade Data reveals a compelling narrative. Week 43 saw the highest level of exports yet recorded in the season, at 7.2k MT.

Week 44 saw a 19% drop in exports dispatched to the US, compared to week 43. While there is a possibility of exports rebounding in week 45, it appears more plausible that the peak of the Peruvian blueberry season will manifest in Week 48, owing to a 5-week delay in exports reaching the US market. Looking at blueberry volumes in the US market recorded in week 48 of 2022, we can see that a total of 5.7 K tonnes was recorded while price per kg was recorded at $4.44. According to our projections, the volumes exported by Peru in Week 43 are likely to constitute the pinnacle for 2023 in the US market, at 7.2 thousand MT; this volume surpasses the quantity recorded in Week 48 of 2022, thereby suggesting the potential for prices to further descend below the levels observed in 2022 for Week 48. Considering the scarcity observed across the US market in recent weeks, the sudden surge in volumes may precipitate a decline in prices to levels below $4.44 per kilogram. While only time will tell how prices will unfold in the US in the next 3 weeks, it might not be too early to start preparing for those blueberry cobblers.