Agronometrics in Charts: Mexico’s ‘Flor Loca’ Crop Fuels an Abundant Supply of Avocados to the US

By Agronometrics | 6 October 2023

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Mexican avocado season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Currently there is a bountiful inflow of avocados into the US originating from Mexico, a country currently in the midst of concurrent harvests of two distinct crops. Hector Soltero, Vice President of Sales Operations for Mission Produce, provided insight into the current situation, stating that the off-bloom crop, known as Flor Loca, is presently demonstrating a robust production volume and is poised to sustain this trend throughout the autumn season. Simultaneously, the newly emergent on-bloom crop, Aventajada, which has commenced its harvest recently, is contributing to the fortification of the supply and is anticipated to maintain its production continuity until June of 2024.

Soltero remarks on the current favorable quality and sizing of avocados, highlighting the industry’s observation of an abundance of grade one fruit and robust availability across all size categories. Mexican avocados are characterized by their low dry matter, synonymous with low oil content, which contributes to an extended shelf life. In comparison to the preceding year, the timing and quality of Mexico’s avocado season align seamlessly with conventional crop expectations. Despite an initial size reduction attributable to heavy rainfall impacting dry matter development, it is worth noting that precipitation levels and growing conditions have progressively improved since July. This climatic enhancement has significantly contributed to the augmentation of avocado size.

avocado volumes by histo 13

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

At present, Mexico stands as the primary supplier of avocados, following the conclusion of both California and Peru’s harvest seasons. Additionally, Chile and Colombia are contributing to the supply with modest volumes. As for demand, historically it’s the slowest during fall for avocados. “This fall, retailers can take advantage of the strong size curve and available supply by promoting bagged avocados,” says Soltero, noting upcoming fall eating occasions such as football game days are opportunities to run promotions and cross merchandise avocados for recipe inspiration. According to Circana data, demand for avocados continues to remain strong, trending approximately five percent higher than the corresponding period in the previous year, as of September 2023.

avocado volumes by origi 10

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

avocado prices by histor 6

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

APEAM (Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico) stands as the sole Mexican partner collaborating with the United States Animal and Plant Health Service (USDA-APHIS) for avocado exports. Additionally, the association assumes responsibility for the global promotion of avocados under the Avocados From Mexico brand. APEAM currently comprises nearly 35,000 growers and 84 packers.

Recognizing the persistent surge in avocado demand, APEAM places a strong emphasis on mitigating the environmental impact of avocado cultivation. The association actively champions sustainable initiatives aimed at curbing these effects. Under its forest protection program, APEAM has contributed to the planting of over 560,000 trees in Michoacán by the year 2022/2023, with a total of 3.4 million trees planted since the inception of the project. The predominant tree species planted include Pinus devoniana Lindley Michoacana, Pinus pseudostrobus Lindley, and Pinus greggi Engelm, among others.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.


Written by: Sarah Ilyas

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