Agronometrics in Charts: Mangos Expected to be in Short Supply for the Holiday Season

By Agronometrics | 19 September 2023

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Peruvian mango season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Peru is known as a major player in the global mango export market, particularly when it comes to varieties like Haden, Tommy Atkins, Kent (fresh), and Edward (frozen). Traditionally, the mango season commences in Piura, serving as the nation’s primary hub for mango production.

The Niño Costero phenomenon earlier this year had a significant impact on mango plantations, as well as other crops. This meteorological event brought forth copious rainfall, resulting in elevated humidity levels, further exacerbated by temperatures consistently exceeding the 20-year average by 2 to 3 degrees. Juan Carlos Rivera Ortega, an expert in mango exports, explained the ramifications of these weather conditions. He claimed that the flowering rate in the fields is currently only between 10% and 30%. Consequently, lower mango production is expected in the upcoming 2023/2024 season, which is also likely to be delayed, possibly starting in November or December and is expected to be shorter than usual. 

He underscored that the projected Peruvian production for the upcoming 2023/2024 campaign is expected to total 250 thousand tons, representing a significant reduction compared to the preceding campaign (2022/2023), during which the yield reached an impressive 500 thousand tons. A pivotal factor upon which the Peruvian mango industry currently hinges is rainfall, as any precipitation would have an even more adverse impact on the sector while too little rainfall would mean minimal production. “Without rain, the outlook is little production. If a rainy scenario occurs, the situation becomes very complicated from a phytosanitary point of view as it would lead to the emergence of pests and fungi due to the high temperature and humidity, which implies that the mango could suffer attacks from pathogenic elements such as anthracnose, fruit fly, red spider, among others.”

mango volumes by history 4

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The window for the export of Peruvian mangos begins in October and ends in April, the peak goes through December to March. The US is the second-largest export market for Peruvian mangos. Given that Peru plays a pivotal role as a supplier of mangos to the United States during the winter months, any delays or shortages have the potential to exert a direct and substantial influence on the United States’ mango market during this season.

Juan Carlos Rivera also mentioned the logistical concerns of dealing with heavy rains, which could lead to flooded and damaged roads connecting the farms. In this context, he outlined a less optimistic scenario where, if rain persists, only 30 to 40% of the mango production might be available for export, totaling around 100 thousand tons. In a more positive scenario without rain, up to 60 to 70% of the production could be shipped, potentially reaching 200 thousand tons. Regarding the size of the fruit, he noted that we can expect larger mangoes because the trees have fewer fruits to support, allowing more energy to go into nourishing the remaining ones. He also indicated that there will be a shortage of mangoes worldwide in the 2023/2024 season. This is due to the El Niño phenomenon affecting several countries, including competitors like Ecuador and Brazil. They, too, are likely to see reduced mango production, leading to less mango availability in international markets and, consequently, higher prices.

mango prices by history 2

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.

Written by: Sarah Ilyas

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