Agronometrics GTD Shorts: When Will Peru’s Blueberry Season Reach its Peak?

On July 4th, the World Meteorological Organisation announced the resurgence of El Niño, a weather phenomenon marked by warming of the Pacific Ocean. Peru experienced a “coastal El Niño” as early as March, characterized by temperatures approximately 5 degrees above the norm. This event has significantly affected blueberry production. Blueberry varieties in Peru have responded differently to the increased temperatures. While some continue to develop at a healthy pace, others such as Ventura have been delayed or yielded minimal output due to insufficient cold hours necessary for proper development. Until now, the impact of El Niño on the current blueberry season in Peru has been colossal.

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Production has plummeted, with output reduced to approximately 60,000 tons, almost 50 percent lower than the previous year. The US market, which accounts for 45 percent of the season’s exports, has experienced a sharp decline, with a nearly 60 percent reduction in cumulative volume. Luis Miguel Vegas, general manager of Proarándanos, suggests that volumes may remain 40 to 50 percent below last year through October. Subsequent months are expected to witness a recovery, though the extent remains uncertain. Peru anticipates a delayed peak in blueberry production; weeks 48 through 50 might emerge as the pinnacle of the season in the region. According to the latest report from the Multisectoral Commission overseeing the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen), the likelihood of a substantial coastal El Niño during the upcoming summer (December 2023 – March 2024) has increased from 25 percent to 35 percent and therefore Peru’s peak, which is already running 4 weeks behind last season, could even overlap with Chile’s peak in January.  El Niño continues to be a dynamic force with profound consequences, reshaping the landscape of blueberry production in Peru and demanding careful monitoring as we move forward.

Blueberry Export Volumes by History | Conventional From Peru