USDA: Almonds and peaches see increase

Overview of peaches from California in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on July 30, 2024.

The forecast for California’s 2024 almond production reveals that 2.8 billion pounds will be harvested this fall, up 13% from a year ago. At that volume, the USDA Fruit and Nut Outlook report said California’s almond crop would be the third-largest on record.

The forecast for California’s 2024 almond production reveals that 2.8 billion pounds will be harvested this fall, up 13% from a year ago.

At that volume, the USDA Fruit and Nut Outlook report said California’s almond crop would be the third-largest on record.

The increase in production is due to a 13% year-over-year increase in yield, the report said. However, the preliminary 2024 almond-bearing acreage is unchanged from a year ago.

“If the bearing acreage estimate is realized, 2024 will mark the first year since 1995 that almond acreage does not increase year over year,” the report said. “In part, a slowdown in almond acreage is due to historically low almond prices that have tightened producers’ margins.”

Summer fruit outlook

The report said the May crop production forecast for California peach production in 2024 is 510,000 tons, a 6% increase from 2023.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

“The current 2024 forecast is up for both clingstone peaches (4%) and freestone peaches (8%) compared to 2023,” the report said. About 70% of freestone peaches enter the fresh market, while clingstone peaches are grown almost exclusively for the processing market (primarily canned and frozen).

“A larger California peach crop is expected in 2024 despite a warm winter resulting in the second lowest chill hour accumulation in the last 50 years,” the report said. “Growers reported abundant fruit set and generally good spring weather conditions. However, persistent high summer temperatures in the Central Valley may negatively impact fruit quality, sizing, and lead to increased fruit drop.”

The USDA will release another peach production forecast for California and seven additional states in its August crop production report.

Fresh peach shipment volumes from May through mid-July were 42% higher than last year, according to USDA shipment data.

Higher year-over-year shipments and lower fob prices in the U.S. Southeast indicate regional peach production in 2024 is larger than last year’s freeze-impacted crop, the report said. More than 88% of South Carolina’s crop and 99% of Georgia’s peach crop were reported in good-to-excellent condition by the USDA at the end of June 2024.

By July 21, peach harvest in South Carolina and Georgia was nearly complete (80% and 84% respectively), which is ahead of last year’s harvest and in line with the 5-year average.

The USDA said the production forecast for sweet cherries in the top three producing States (Oregon, Washington and California) is 333,000 tons (666 million pounds), down 6% from a year ago.

An increase in Oregon production (up 11%) was not enough to offset declines in Washington (down 11%) and California (down 2%). Washington, which accounts for 52% of the 2024 U.S. production forecast, is expected to decline by 23,000 tons year-over-year, the report said. Michigan was included in the USDA’s sweet cherry forecast, representing 6% (22,000 tons) of U.S. production based on four surveyed states.

“In January 2024, Washington experienced a hard freeze that reportedly damaged cherry trees in some orchards,” the report said. “The freeze may result in lower end-of-season shipment volumes from the more heavily affected northern counties.”

In 2024, fresh cherry shipments from central California started two weeks earlier than last year due to more favorable spring weather conditions.

USDA data shows small volumes of early-season cherry varieties from Washington began the first week of June and total domestic shipment volume from late April through mid-July was running 2% ahead of last year with average weekly shipping point prices trending higher than last season but lower than 2022.

The USDA forecast U.S. apricot production at 36,000 tons, up 1% from last year, but less than half the average production in 2000–2002.

California apricot production is expected to account for 34,000 tons (94%) of the total U.S. crop. Washington apricot production is expected lower in 2024 (down 43%) compared to last year. At 2,000 tons, 2024 Washington apricot production is the lowest in four years, the report said.

U.S. apricot bearing acreage and production has declined in the past 20 years as demand slumped for domestically processed apricots. During the same period, season average grower prices rose as higher priced fresh-market apricots made up a larger share of utilized production volume, the report said.

During the 1980s, about 90% of the U.S. apricot crop was processed as canned, dried, or frozen products, according to the report. However, the USDA said that during the last three seasons (2021–23), processed utilization represented only 45% of the average annual apricot crop.

“This reflects increased year-round availability of other fresh fruits, increased competition from processed apricot imports, higher returns for alternative crops, and a downward trend in canned apricot consumption,” the report said.

While the report did not give a forecast for the 2024 California fresh grape crop, the USDA said California’s table-type grape acreage was estimated at 125,000 acres in 2023, a decrease of 2,000 acres from 2022.

California fresh table grape bearing acreage was 120,000 acres, or 96% of total acreage. Flame seedless was the leading table-type variety with 12,139 acres in California. Other popular table-type varieties include scarlet royal (6,417 acres), a midseason red seedless variety, and autumn king (6,413 acres), a late-season white seedless variety available in the fall.

Imports are taking a larger slice of the entire fresh grape supply, the report said.

“Fresh grape imports for the 2023-24 marketing year were 1.75 billion pounds, exceeding the 2022-23 record volume of 1.64 billion pounds,” the report said. “Imports continue to make up an increasingly larger share of fresh grape availability, accounting for 56% of fresh table grape supply on average in 2020-21 to 2022-23.

“The share of imports has trended upward for [five] consecutive years, reaching a record high (63%) in 2023-24 as imports exceeded domestic production volume for the first time,” the report said.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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