Understanding the capacity of the U.S. market for Chilean cherries

Overview of cherries from Chile in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on April 24, 2025.

By Sebastian Ramírez

One of the most highly anticipated moments of the 2025 Global Cherry Summit – held April 22 in Chile and attended by nearly 2,000 people – was the presentation by Victor Arriagada, managing director of Forever Fresh LLC, on the opportunities for Chilean cherries in the U.S. market.

The Global Cherry Summit was organized by Yentzen Group and the Chilean Cherry Committee.

Arriagada noted that the United States holds significant market potential, with 340 million inhabitants and considerable ethnic and cultural diversity. However, he emphasized that the population is heavily concentrated on the East Coast, South, and West Coast, with the Northeast being the most densely populated region.

Local market as a mirror to the potential of Chilean cherries

Regarding local production – which primarily occurs in northwestern states – Arriagada said volumes have remained relatively stable in recent years.

“The average annual volume is around 25 to 28 million 20-pound boxes, which, when converted to 3- or 5-kilogram boxes, totals 51 million boxes last year,” he said.

Of this, California accounted for 15.6 million boxes and the Pacific Northwest for 35.6 million.

Between 25% and 30% of these 51 million boxes are exported annually, a figure that Arriagada said has remained consistent. Exports primarily go to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Canada.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

“About 70% of production is concentrated in two months – or eight weeks – during the American summer. Compared to the Chilean season, the U.S. season is more extended, even though it’s still seasonal and concentrated. This is one of the things we need to manage in our industry,” Arriagada said.

The director of Forever Fresh LLC emphasized that the North American industry is more mature in terms of production and consumption.

“It is a market that already has very established marketing channels, that already has very established product quality parameters, and prices are based on historical prices,” he said.

Focus on retail

Arriagada said production in the main U.S. growing states is heavily focused on retail – and that 90% of the cherries exported to the U.S. are also sold at the retail level.

“Given that, we have to understand how retail works in the United States. The execution we have had at the industry level has not been good,” he said.

As for retailers’ needs, he said they need consistency and quality. “Our (Chilean) arrivals are concentrated and uneven, and in terms of quality also very variable, which does not help us build a track record.”

“Supermarkets in the U.S. buy based on history, not estimation,” Arriagada said.

He said that since supermarkets operate on a weekly cycle throughout the season, this makes coordination difficult due to the long transport times from South America, which requires a more strategic plan.

Throughout the season, as volumes increase and more promotions are offered in supermarkets, the price of locally produced fruit decreases. Specifically, during peak volumes, the retail price is at its lowest, and as volumes decline, the price rises. In other words, during peak volume, the retail price is at its lowest, and as volumes decrease, the price increases.

How do you conquer the market?

Arriagada drew a distinction between conquering and invading a market, because to conquer is to arrive to stay.

However, when Chilean fruit arrives without continuity and consistency to invade the market, it overflows the market, and then it takes a couple of years to develop it again and achieve an adequate standard. “There is no strategic plan for the entry of the fruit into the American market,” Arriagada said.

Last year, Chilean cherry exports to the United States increased 43%, reaching 4 million 21-pound boxes.

Another area for improvement for Chilean cherries is logistics, as the comparative data on packing and port arrival times between Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Philadelphia are similar.

“We are taking the same time to get to the United States, to the port, as it took us to get to Asia,” he explained.

With a transit time of 22 days, he indicated that it is very important to return to the 14 days before, as it is also necessary to add a week at the ports of the United States and another week for transportation to the country’s supermarkets.

“Looking at these numbers, with 30 days, plus a week at the port and another week, we are talking about 6 weeks we are demanding the fruit,” he said.

Concentration and consistency

Arriagada told members of the Chilean cherry industry that their arrivals are highly concentrated in January, with more than 50% of the volume arriving over a four-week period. In addition, he called for more consistency, as is the case for the local production market.

Prices and promotions for domestic fruit remain consistent from season to season. However, Chilean exporters experience a 43% increase or decrease in one year, with significant variability. “We have not given consistency to that offer,” he explained.

Regarding promotional campaigns, since Chilean fruit arrives in the American winter, the focus should be on the origin and what differentiates the exported fruit from that produced locally, which is typically consumed in the summer.

Quality and size of Chilean cherries

According to Arriagada, the U.S. cherry market is seeking jumbo fruit. However, XL fruit continues to be exported, but the market is not asking for XL sizes.

“When we get creative and send L, lots of XL, what we are doing is filling the same distribution channel with fruit that the market doesn’t want,” Arriagada said.

“And some may receive good returns for an L, even returns similar to the jumbos, since there is not a very big differentiation when it comes to retail sales, but that L that enters that marketing channel is taking over the place of jumbo and larger sizes. This means that the good fruit has to spend more time waiting for the market to be cleaned up.”

This generates what Arriagada describes as “a snowball effect” for two or three weeks, causing inconsistency in shipments.

Additionally, this also affects buyer confidence, which for Chilean fruit is 25%, compared to 100% for local fruit.

There is also a significant difference between the number of promotions during the local and export seasons, which reaches 4,000 per month during the local period and only 200 per month for imported fruit. Therefore, Arriagada called to talk to buyers and convince them to make more promotions.

“For that, we have to be consistent; there must be volume and good quality fruit, because if I convince him, it has to bring good results for him (retailer), so that he repeats.”

In closing, Arriagada said: “There is great potential in the American market for Chilean cherries, but it is not a reality today. It is something that we have to generate over time, and generating demand is a process that spans several seasons, especially considering that the market is comprised of retailers who buy based on historical trends.”

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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