Trendspotting: Mexican avocado crop expected to increase

Overview of avocados from Mexico in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on April 4, 2025.

Cinco de Mayo is right around the corner, and as we all know, without guacamole (and tequila, but that’s another story), Cinco de Mayo becomes just May 5.

Mexico is the main supplier of avocados the United States: between 80 and 88 percent of the non-domestic avocado supply, depending on who you ask. No matter how the on-again, off-again, on-again tariff drama continues play out, Mexico will surely remain the main supplier of avocados the United States.

According to the USDA, Mexico’s 2025 avocado production is forecast at 2.75 million metric tons, a 3 percent increase over 2024. Exports are forecast at 1.34 million metric tons in 2025, up 5 percent year-over-year. The increase is the result of favorable growing conditions, improved agricultural practices and strong export demand.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Michoacán is Mexico’s leading avocado producing state with 68 percent of production, followed by Jalisco with 12 percent and the state of Mexico with 5 percent. Michoacán’s production declined by one percent in 2024 due to unfavorable climatic conditions and increased enforcement, such as fines, applied to orchards on deforested land. Jalisco’s production increased by 5 percent on export demand and adequate water resources.

Michoacán and Jalisco are the only states eligible for export to the United States.

Mexico produces virtually exclusively the Hass variety due to its cold hardiness, durability, texture and taste. Producers reported overall good fruit weights for the 2024 crop, ranging from eight to 13 ounces (250 to 350 grams). However, some growing areas faced elevated summer temperatures that reduced fruit quantity and weight.

The U.S. market accounts for more than 80 percent of Mexico’s total avocado exports by volume, followed by Canada (7 percent) and Japan (3 percent).

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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