Strike 3…you are OUT!!! Or not…?

Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego, writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.

We humans like to put ourselves in a tight spot…

Why do we do that?

Probably because we are living the least dangerous life ever…

Is always nice to go out of your “cave” and not have to worry about a lion eating you or not finding food to survive.

But your guess is as good as mine!

Now… back to this week’s news about the Pending U.S. port strike.

I assume you already read more than one article about it.

If not.. check the PSs section before reading the rest of the newsletter.

So how will the strike affect the blueberry industry?

First, let’s look at how the blues entered the USA at this time last year.

Then, who was sending the fruit?… because it would probably be, the same guys that are sending it right now too.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

USA Fresh Import Blueberry Volume By Partner | Cultivated Conventional

Ok… So we have a few countries sending fruit to the USA during the end of September and the beginning of October.

But will a port strike affect them all in the same way?

Fortunately, we can take a look at the info on how they were sending the blueberries last year.

Argentina. They will probably won’t be affected if the ports have problems because they don’t send much fruit by boat and with the high prices right now, there is not much logic in sending fruit by boat to arrive at least 3/4 weeks later when Peru’s kilos would be higher and the prices lower. So they will be chilling and drinking mate.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Canada. Here there is not much to say. If they are still sending fruit it would definitely be by truck. So they might be more worried about the rain during the weekend than about what is happening in the US ports, and they might even get lucky if some fruit goes their way because it can’t find its way into USA territory.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Chile. Would be doing the same as Argentina for the moment and sending their high-priced blues by air. If the strike starts and lasts for a long time…

…. then yes they would be facing problems, so it might be good to start looking for alternative plans.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Colombia. They might have some fruit on the sea working its way up to the US so they might have some travel, but probably not that big a deal because their season would be just starting. But looking for an alternative port would be wise as a Plan B.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

México, Well they are just there so, like the Canadian neighbors, they would be sending their fruit by truck and, again not too much worrying about what the port guys are doing in the north.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Peru. “Houston we have a problem…” Like with the Apollo 13, the “explosion” of a port strike might play a problematic role here.

Why…?

Let’s see…

99% of the blueberries have been shipped by boat so far

The USA represents 51% of exports so far and has grown 17% since last year. While at the same time, Europe lost 6%, China 22% and UK 5%.

Around 11.000 tons were exported to the USA between weeks 37 and 38 so that is a lot of fruit plus the one that was sent during week 39.

With this grim outlook many of the big Peruvian exporters would be looking for options, but finding alternatives for more than 6.000 tons, on such short notice, won’t be an easy task.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Also, those kilos might create a real problem arriving “unannounced” into the other markets.

On the other hand, other exporters around the world should be prepared to change their fruit destination to get into the USA market in a blink if the strike starts.

Many different scenarios would appear on the horizon if the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, representing the ports on the U.S. East Coast, don’t reach an agreement.

As always if you want to explore some of those scenarios you just need to schedule a CALL

Have a Great Week!!!

And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…

PS: What to read…

Pending U.S. port strike is a threat to southern hemisphere produce.

Port Strike Impacts on Backlogs and Delays

US Ports Are Threatened With Strikes in Election-Season Jolt

PS1: Yes… they can send the fruit to the west coast ports but there will be delays if all the shippers do the same and the blueberries are not known for their resistance. So quality will suffer.

PS2: Fruit Attraction is coming and I’ll be there so if you want to meet in person just send me an email.

Written by Diego Castagnasso