Plan for the WORST and hope for the BEST… Blueberry chapter

Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.

The END is near…

How cryptic of me…

I mean the Peruvian blueberry season 2024/2025

Only a few weeks more and we will be staring at a new PROARANDANOS Projection for the season 2025/26

In the meantime…what happened in the last 60 weeks?

Peru Fresh Blueberry Export Volume By Partner | Cultivated

Peru Fresh Blueberry Export Price By Partner | Cultivated

We can see that Peru made an excellent recovery from 2023 and that they also broke the export record of 2022 week 38 (21.300 + tons) with 2024 W42 (22.300 + Tons), plus W43 (21.290 Tons), and W45 (21.285 Tons)

And that meant A LOT OF BLUES…

The recipient of more than 50% of all this volume was the US.

So, let’s check what the reaction of the market was to the last 60 weeks.

Last year, I noticed something strange…

When the total volume exceeds 5000 tons, prices start to slow down or drop within a week or two…

…but last year, as volume went up thanks mostly to Peu’s tons, prices also went up from W39 to W42, while total volume also increased.

After that, it had a good drop, kept falling until week 45, and then it kind of slowed its roll.

So, what now…?

“EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED”

Although we don’t have the new projection, let’s make our imaginations work a bit.

Here is the graph with the real curve so far (purple), the July’s 2024 projection curve (there was an earlier one), my own projection curve for 2025 (just putting 20% more), and what an exporting curve to the US with 50% might look like.

The main ingredient, for a good analysis, would be what would happen with Donald’s tariffs…

…but trying to guess on that would be an exercise for an ayahuasca session, and I am out of it.

What I know, is that as soon as 5000 tons, more or less,  start arriving in the US, the prices will start dropping.

The problem is that we don’t know at what price they will start going down. Last year, they dropped from a very comfortable U$8,75 to a tight U$5,06. FOB.

After that, the price will probably stay low because as Chile and then Mexico enter the market, prices will tend to stabilize.

Do you have more information?

Of course!, I have! But I think you have enough for now,

Try to draw your own conclusions with the info here and if you need…

…. A new perspective on the market.

…. A more in-depth analysis of the variables affecting your selling strategy

…. To know the new trends out there and how they might affect your bottom line.

Well, you just need to schedule a CALL

Oh! I almost forgot… I think that the most interesting things will happen in the organic niche because Peru is doing things a bit differently now.

All this is just a CALL away.

Have a GREAT Week!!!

And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…

PS: Trump’s tariff strategy is unknown, so it would be wise for all the companies that rely heavily on the US market to start finding alternative markets or different strategies for approaching it. It is better to do it NOW rather than later.

Written by Diego Castagnasso