Mexico’s 2024 peach production forecast to increase 3%
Overview of peaches from Mexico in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on October 10, 2024.
The latest Stone Fruit Annual report by the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts that Mexico’s 2024 peach production will increase to 266,400 metric tons (MT), a 3% increase over 2023, driven by increased domestic consumption and stagnant imports.
According to data from the Government of Mexico, the Latin American country is the 11th largest peach producer globally.
The country’s peach imports are forecast to grow in 2024, mostly from the United States and Chile.
The top four peach-producing states account for about 71% of production, led by Zacatecas with nearly 40% of production, Michoacán and Chihuahua with 12% each, and Puebla with 8%. The country’s peach production peaks in the summer and early fall months, particularly in July, August, and September, which account for over 70% of total production.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Production is minimal during the winter months, with no output in January and limited production in November and December.
Peach production in Mexico is significantly influenced by climate conditions. Fluctuating temperatures can lead to insufficient winter chill in certain areas, resulting in erratic blooming and reduced yields.
Mexican peaches thrive within specific temperature ranges that vary across the country’s diverse microclimates. Ideal conditions include a winter chilling period with temperatures between 32°F and 50°F (0-10°C), providing around 500 chilling hours for a proper dormancy break.
Consumption
According to Government of Mexico data gathered by the USDA, Mexico’s annual per capita peach consumption is 2.1 kilograms. Due to the seasonal nature of peach production, the fruit is commonly utilized in jams and syrups as well as in the bakery, salad, and sweets industries.
The majority of peaches are sold at local stores or farmers market for local consumption.
Trade
Market year peach imports is forecast at 28,141 metric tons, a 5% increase compared to the previous marketing year.
Mexico predominantly imports peaches from the United States and Chile, with the United States accounting for 62% of Mexico’s volume peach imports. Mexico is projected to maintain steady peach imports to cover domestic consumption.
Mexico’s peach exports are forecast at 450 metric tons in MY 2024, down from an estimated 536 metric tons in MY 2023 based on growing domestic demand. The country’s peach exports have been declining since 2022 and are limited to regional partners such as Belize, Costa Rica, and El Salvador.
Cherries
The report forecasts fresh cherry production at 139 metric tons for 2024, a 6% increase compared to last year’s output. Given Mexico’s relatively low level of production, Mexican demand is primarily covered by cherry exports from the United States. Mexico’s cherry production is limited to the states of Chihuahua, accounting for 51% of production, and Puebla accounting for the remaining 49%.
Each cherry tree produces an average of 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds) during one season per year. The cherry production season in Mexico typically runs from June to August, although the season sometimes extends into September in some parts of Puebla.
The report forecasts Mexico’s closing year 2024 cherry imports at 5,110 metric tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. Estimated closing year 2023 imports totaled 4,923 metric tons.
Mexico depends on the international market to fulfill its cherry demand, importing 90% of its fresh cherries from the United States and the remaining 10% from Chile.
Imports do not occur year-round but are aligned to each region’s specific climates, with Chile exporting in the first parts of the year and the United States from May through September.
The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.
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