Mexican exporters pause avocado harvests due to 25% tariff

Overview of avocados from Mexico in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on March 12, 2025.

Although the 25% tariff on Mexican avocado exports to the United States had been temporarily suspended on March 6 2025 after only three days in force, producers and exporters have expressed concern that it could become a permanent policy.

According to Salvador Miranda Aguilar, a representative of Grupo Sanell, the uncertainty caused by the tariffs has led to a halt in shipments to the United States. “Almost the majority stopped harvesting because we didn’t know how the final price would be affected. Producers and packers were waiting to renegotiate terms with U.S. buyers,” he said.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Prior to the implementation of the tariffs, the price of exports to the U.S. was approximately 10 to 15 Mexican pesos higher than that offered in the domestic market; however, with the new 25% tariff, the profit margin has been significantly reduced, forcing exporters to reconsider their sales and distribution strategies.

To facilitate comparison with other markets, the exchange rate is estimated at 20 Mexican pesos per dollar. In the domestic market, avocados fetch around 30 Mexican pesos per kilo, while larger sizes (150 grams or more) can fetch between 45 and 50 Mexican pesos per kilo.

The Mexican avocado sector is facing a significant struggle due to its high dependence on the U.S. market. “Even though Grupo Sanell is committed to diversifying its markets, the United States remains a price regulator. If high prices are paid there, market conditions everywhere are shaped accordingly,” says Salvador.

Faced with the risk of tariffs becoming permanent, exporters are looking for new opportunities in alternative markets such as Europe and the Middle East, where no tariffs currently apply. However, distance and logistical costs entail a challenge compared to the geographical proximity and advantages of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (T-MEC).

The U.S. government has announced that the decision on the permanence of the tariffs will be reviewed in a month (April 2, 2025), leaving the industry in a position of uncertainty. Meanwhile, Mexican producers are looking into strategies to absorb the impact of possible trade restrictions, exploring market diversification mechanisms and production adjustments to maintain their competitiveness.

Avocado production in Mexico continues to grow, and prospects for next season are favorable in terms of quality and volume; however, if tariffs remain in place, prices could become more volatile and both exporters and consumers in both countries could be affected.

The Mexican avocado sector will closely monitor the effects of this trade measure, trusting that the free trade conditions that have facilitated the industry’s development will be maintained.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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