Guest article: Just the man I wanted to speak to…

Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego, writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.

Roberto…!!! I was just going to call you…

Roberto Aylwin is a dear friend of mine, I know him from this business and we usually call each other when we are looking for the best intel out there… 

After the usual chitchat, He asked me about Peru and my take on what was happening. 

Well, the curve is going up and it seems that the week-by-week forecast is nailing it and week 36 is 18% up from 2023’s. 

…So, do you think it will impact Chile just as it did last year or will the overlap be a bit worse? 

Dear friend, you know I charge for answering those questions… So why don’t I give you the info and you get your own conclusion? 

and so we get to our Next Stop, Chile.

Blueberry Export Volumes by Reporter | Cultivated Conventional

Blueberry Export Volumes by Reporter | Cultivated Conventional

This is the data you can see… 

So the more difference between peaks, the better and the more abrupt the descent of the Peruvian production was also better for Chile, last year as you can see, that was a problem. 

Let us see the region curves.

Blueberry Export Volumes by History | Cultivated Conventional

Blueberry Export Volumes 2022-2024 and Projections

I took the data from the previous graphs and downloaded them to an Excel spreadsheet, 

so what are we expecting?? 

The longer the Peruvian season extends and the less long it takes for the curve to go down, the worse it would be for the Chilean season. 

So Roberto… What is your info? 

1st: The general season is looking for a later start due to colder temperatures, no news there… 

2nd “…In the north, in Quillota, 120 km North of Santiago we are very late with traditional varieties, I think the season will pick up in mid-October more or less if the weather is good.” 

3rd “…In conclusion, we are talking about a delay of at least two weeks in the Chilean area due to the accumulation of lack of hours of heat, but it is possible that as the season progresses it will recover, however, in any case, it could have repercussions in the form of smaller, lighter fruit and/or less fruit. 

So with this panorama in mind, I think you have a clear picture of what the different scenarios are… 

….If you don’t…

…. you just need to Schedule a CALL 

Have a Great Week!!! 

And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe… 

PS: Roberto is confident that the extended pruning time of the Peruvian plants will bring not only delay but even less fruit in the plants. 

Will this be true? 

PS1: In any case the closer the Peruvian curve gets to the Chilean curve, the worse it would be for Chilean producers. 

PS2: If the price is pushed down (survival prices), there are other costs (financial) associated with Peruvian production, in general, that might work in favor of the Chilean season.

Written by Diego Castagnasso