EXPECTATIONS…Expectations…expectations…
By
| 28 May 2025
Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.
Be careful what your message is because “Miss Europe” is a VERY unique type of market…
More so when it comes to its Blueberries…
Yes, although we treat it like one market is a “web” of different markets with its own characteristics, so when forecasting, you need to have all those things in mind.
I know you want to know which of those individual markets is the most important…
I know…
I KNOW…
Too much work for just one newsletter…
… is even a lot for the one-hour or so presentation of MY own DC’s B-Side Forecast 2025.
Let’s look at what Agronometrics is showing us
Peru Fresh Blueberry Exports By Partner | Cultivated
So based on this…
Why do we have to care about Europe? Just keep our eyes on the Netherlands and the UK, and solve this once and for all…
OK, ok let’s look at this for a sec… no longer than that, because it can take us forever…
The Netherlands, population 18 million, on the week of the 20th of October 2024 (week 42) received almost 6 million kg of blueberries from Peru ALONE, so that week the Dutch eat, on average, 333 gm per capita…
IN A WEEK!
That is not much you said…, I know, you can go through a 125 gm clamshell in less than a minute…
BUT
The US average per capita is a bit over 1kg… IN A YEAR!!!
Let the info settle down for a bit…
No… a bit longer
Almost there…
YES!
Either the Dutch are the healthiest people on the planet, and look like TALL Smurfs, or a lot of that fruit is going to other markets…
Now that we’ve settled that…
Let’s see Europe, as a whole, over the last 3 years vs their forecast, plus the 2025’s
So, what we can see here is… NOT MUCH!
· Season 2022, they sent the fruit they had when they had it, and they pushed as much as they could until they couldn’t.
· Season 2023 was a very difficult year, but the biggest problem wasn’t the lack of volume but the lack of INFORMATION.
· Season 2024 was much better, although there was a lot of frui.t INFORMATION flow was positive.
· Season 2025, I will say that “transparency” will be the KEY.
Now let’s add the “money” curve
When adding the money, you can see how, IF you play with an “old lady’s” EXPECTATIONS, you end up having problems.
Why?
A- Because the “Miss Europe” market is not as “agile” when things go out of what was expected, when that happens, it takes her time to adapt, and she doesn’t like to adapt.
B- She can eat a lot of berries, but when she has had enough, well, it will take her a while to start eating again, like any respectable lady her age would do. And remember that she doesn’t like bad weather. When this happens, she stays home without her berries.
C- If you behave as a Gentleman with her, she will certainly do her best to accommodate you, but if you betray her trust…
So, let’s take a look
1. The forecast failed in two aspects. Peru sent fruit earlier and a lot more than expected. So, you can see that the market got stuck for many weeks and the prices didn’t move, remaining low even after a while.
2. Here you can see that she is old but with a good memory. So the forecast was saying that they would have a rapid growth, so the price started slowly going down, but the promos were in, and the fruit was not. At that time, if you remember well, it took Peru a while to recognize that the El Niño problem was worse than previously advertised.
3. Last year, you had the procurement guys from every corner of the world looking for options because Peru was not meeting the expectations. Slowly, they started informing with more precision what was happening, so even when the volumes grew more than expected, she was able to flush the fruit quicker, so the period of low prices was shorter than in 2022.
Now that we have the idea of what is happening as a WHOLE…
You might want to see how that price line is put together
Peru Fresh Blueberry Exports By Partner | Cultivated
In short, how you manage the EXPECTATIONS of the European market is Important.
And while we are talking about Expectations…
What can you expect from DC’s B-Side Forecast 2025?
A twist on the Peruvian Forecast and the WHY of it.
A more in-depth analysis of the 4 Major markets (US, Europe, China, and Others).
One “guest” or an “opponent” … still not sure how he is going to behave…
Only 20 “seats”
And the price…. That’s on YOU because it is going to be an auction.
When? Still on June 5th
How do I get a seat?
I want to know more…
All in due time… for now, click here and more info will be in your inbox soon
Have a GREAT Week!!!
And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend; if not, unsubscribe…
PS: It is very important to understand where the fruit is exactly going, and the Netherlands is not the only case of a distribution hub that we need to untangle.
PS1: The US market, which we are going to see next week, is much more “flexible” and lowering the price per kilo goes a long way to unstick the sales.
PS2: You are anxious, and you can’t wait until June to get…
More in-depth information on the European market trends.
What is happening with the Peruvian market
Or want to understand better how to deal with “Miss Europe”?
Just schedule a CALL NOW and clear up all your doubts.
Written by Diego Castagnasso
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