Case Study: Peru Export Data and the Use of the Degree of Certainty Tool

Agronometrics is proud to announce the rollout of its Degree of Certainty tool for Peruvian export data. Widely recognized as one of the most reliable sources of export information globally, Peru’s export data is already distinguished for its accuracy, with weekly updates provided every Monday. The introduction of Agronometrics’ new tool further enhances this reliability by offering businesses advanced capabilities to navigate the complexities of the data, providing insights into export volumes, prices, and values.

Peru Export Volumes:

Peruvian export data stands out for its remarkable accuracy, particularly in terms of volume. Data reported from Peru’s export services is very close to the final numbers, thanks to precise tracking of shipments as they are loaded onto ships and planes. Once the fruit is in transit, there is little room for changes, ensuring the stability of export numbers throughout the export process. This consistency in export volumes provides our clients with reliable, up-to-date information that can be leveraged for strategic planning and decision-making. Exporters and traders who rely on volume data can be confident that they are receiving near-final figures from the moment shipments are recorded.

Peru Export Price Analysis: 

While volume data is highly reliable, prices require a more nuanced analysis. This is where Agronometrics’ Degree of Certainty tool shines. Through detailed statistical analysis, we identified a consistent trend in price underreporting. Initial export prices are often declared at lower values, our current hypothesis for this is to minimize tax liabilities. Over time, as transactions are completed and funds are repatriated to Peru, prices are adjusted to reflect the actual sales values, allowing for proper tax payments.By virtue of statistical analysis of past prices, the Degree of Certainty tool is able to estimate future price adjustments with a high degree of accuracy. This enables users to anticipate final export prices and gain valuable insights into the actual market value of Peruvian exports.

Enhanced Data Quality for Exporters and Importers

The Degree of Certainty tool offers significant advantages for both exporters and importers:

• Exporters: By providing more accurate estimates of Peru’s export volumes and prices, the tool enables exporters to strategically price their products. If Peru is exporting large volumes, exporters can adjust their pricing to remain competitive. In cases where volumes are low, they can negotiate higher prices based on the expected shortage.

• Importers/Retailers: Importers can also benefit from the tool by anticipating future supply levels and adjusting their buying strategies. When the tool indicates high supply, importers can negotiate better prices, while anticipated shortages may require securing products at higher costs to ensure availability.

Through Agronometrics’ Global Trade Data Service, the Degree of Certainty tool provides real-time insights into volumes, prices, and value for Peruvian exports; it also offers a detailed view of current market conditions, allowing businesses to make informed decisions based on the most accurate data available.

Written by Sarah Ilyas