Are you holding your breath? [Your Blueberry Business Shouldn’t Be]

Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego, writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.

Many blueberry producers, exporters, and importers, around the world, are doing EXACTLY that.

Some more than others…

Because we are hours away from Donald´s New term and he is promising to change the landscape of the world’s commerce as well as the name of some well-known gulf…

Let’s take a look at the “before” blueberry market…

Peru: Peruvian growers are flexing their export muscles like never before. They’re sending out 323,928 tons this season, and they’ve totally revamped their blueberry game—swapping Biloxi and Rocío for hipper as Sekoya Pop, Magica, and Atlasblue varieties, although is still Ventura the one that dominates.

China: China is eating a lot of cherries and some blueberries too, but this year Peruvian and Chilean blues are not alone—they’re sharing shelf space with some impressive local fruit. Chinese growers in Guangdong are working magic, thanks to perfect weather: sunny days, chilly nights, and a growing season primed for juicy, flavorful berries. Greenhouse-grown and close to major markets, these blueberries are fresher, and imported fruit would have to be cheaper to compete with the local freshness.

South Africa: Exports are up 7%, despite frost slicing 2,500 tons off the top. But competition from Peru? Yikes. Some farms are nearing profitability limits. Zimbabwe, though, is thriving with its earlier supply window.

North America: 2025 is shaping up nicely. Mexico, Peru, Chile, and California are all doing their thing. But here’s the catch: as supply grows, so does the need to convince more people to eat blueberries. (Seriously, half of U.S. households don’t eat them. Where are these people??)

Europe:

Germany and Austria: High prices, lots of Peruvian berries, and Morocco sneaking in.

Italy: Blueberries are becoming a household name but at €15.50 a pack, they’d better be gold-plated.

Belgium: Supply delays from Peru and Chile mean a berry shortage. Spain and Morocco? Not enough to save the day (yet).

Netherlands: It’s been a fragile year. Shortages drive prices sky-high; surpluses tank them. Dutch traders aren’t loving this rollercoaster.

Other Highlights:

Spain: Early start, but volumes are still ramping up.

Morocco: Harvest just began, and competition is stiff. But February? That’s their time to shine.

Egypt: Everyone wants in on blueberries. Test crops are booming.

India: Exports are growing, but domestic markets still rule.

Last but not least…

Mexico:

What is happening to them?

I struggle to find info, of course, you’ll see the Agronometrics charts, but I mean… are there any forecasts?

The only official word (I found) was…

“Mexican exports of fresh strawberries, raspberries, and blueberries fell by 2.2 percent in 2024 and are poised for a similar contraction this year, according to industry association Aneberries. It said adverse climate, increased input costs, the volatility of the peso-dollar exchange rate and labour shortages had affected the berry market in recent years and are likely to hit production and exports in 2025.”

And was said by Aneberries’ general director, Juan José Flores, to El Economista.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Judging by the information about their exports they are a bit better than last year, but not that much.

In the USA, their main market that gets around 95% of their blues, they are above 2024 but down from 2023’s.

Pricewise the last few weeks they have been getting fewer dollars per kilo than the Peruvian fruit. but this year the difference is much bigger.

Let’s compare the same week (2nd week of January):

2023 Peru $23,67-Mex 15,56

2024 Peru $29,23-Mex 24,00

2025 Peru $19,58-Mex 8,00

But what happened with “holding their breath”

Oh! yes, I almost forgot…

In a few hours, Trump is going to be President again, and if the tariffs are applied…

Well, the panorama will change and Mexico will be the first to suffer in the blueberry industry.

Soon others will be disrupted, like the proverbial “butterfly effect”, but instead of a cute butterfly, this looks more like MOTHRA from Godzilla.

How would this affect me?

Good question!

But I still don’t know Who you are?

If you are reading this you might be a subscriber, someone in the the Agronometrics list or even a friend of a friend.

So, schedule a CALL NOW before the “ripples” get you unprepared

Have a Great Week!!!

And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…

PS: As I was doing my research for this episode of “DC’s B-Side”, the people of Freshplaza issued their “Global Market Overview” so I took it and made something more MY style.

PS: As always many people are lost with my movie references so Mothra is another character that looks like a mix between a Butterfly and a Moth.

Written by Diego Castagnasso