Avocados Berries Blackberries Blueberries Raspberries Strawberries

Agronometrics Shorts: President Trump’s Tariffs in Action – Surging Prices for Key Fresh Produce Commodities

By Agronometrics | 5 March 2025

President Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect Tuesday, and he also doubled the levy on products from China to 20%. China retaliated with taxes of up to 15% on U.S. farm imports, while both Canada and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs of their own. 70% of imported avocados came from Mexico in 2024. 67% of imported strawberries, blueberries, raspberries and blackberries come from Mexico (63%) and Canada (4%). These figures highlight the heavy reliance on North American trade partnerships for essential fruit imports, making any disruptions—such as tariffs or trade restrictions—potentially significant for both growers and consumers. The US relies on imports for roughly 90% of its potash needs, with about 85% coming from Canada. The Fertilizer Institute and Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa have already called on the Trump administration to exempt the product from duties. “These across-the-board tariffs will make it harder for Americans to put food on the table and will squeeze farmers who will lose valuable export markets and see higher input costs,” said Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. Tariffs on Canadian fertilizers will make it more expensive for American farmers to grow their own crops. “Any way you slice it, this is a tax on American citizens, and will have a real impact on our economy,” said Matt Campbell, a risk management consultant at futures and options brokerage StoneX in West Des Moines, Iowa. “Ultimately, this has inflationary impacts.” US consumers could see tariff-driven price increases quickly, especially for products like fresh produce with shorter supply chains. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, U.S. farmers have lost money on “almost every major crop planted” in the last three years. “Adding even more costs and reducing markets for American agricultural goods,” federation president Zippy Duvall said in a statement, “could create an economic burden some farmers may not be able to bear.” The impact of the tariffs became evident on March 4, as Mexican blackberry prices surged from $9 to $14.50. Blueberry prices increased by 12.5%, while strawberry prices experienced a sharp 19% rise in just one day.