Agronometrics Shorts: Chilean Apples Outpace American Apples in the Brazilian Market for the First Time, Benefitting From U.S Tariffs on Imports

Chilean apple exports are expected to remain steady in the 2024/2025 market year (July 2024–June 2025), according to new forecasts from the USDA. Ample rainfall and winter chill from the early 2025 La Nina offset decreased acreage and are likely to lead to yields as high as 920,000 tons. This steady production, ensured by a multitude of factors such as geography and agricultural technology, has also guaranteed a slight increase in apple exports to 530,000 tons. Chile currently leads the world in exports of the Gala and Pink Lady apple variety, which are a popular choice of consumers in Latin and North America. Brazil’s market, currently valued at $60.3 million, has surpassed Colombia and Ecuador as the main destination of Chilean apples, an incredible milestone for the Chilean apple industry. Brazil’s participation in the regional trade agreement, the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), a growing population and proximity to Chile (reduced shipping and delivery costs) have propelled the Brazilian market to be the top destination for Chilean apples. The geographic proximity alone has given Brazil a cost effective alternative to American apples, which face higher shipping costs, duties and a  harvest season that doesn’t align with Brazilian demand. The 2025 season alone is expected to further see Brazilian demands for Chilean apples rise by roughly 14.6% to 36,547 tons. Although Latin America remains a key market for the apple industry in Chile, China, the Netherlands and the United States remain very large and important markets for apple products. However, given recent U.S. tariffs put forth by President Donald Trump, Chile’s apple industry could likely, albeit indirectly, have more demand for competitively priced apples from countries looking to avoid paying extra duties. With tariffs expected to remain in place, retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners will continue, affecting U.S. influence in regional and global markets as foreign buyers, such as Brazil, look to other markets for economical alternatives, continuing to drive demand for American apples down.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Written by Gregory Conner Jr.