Agronometrics in Charts: US Market Faces Reduced Supply of Peruvian Avocados This Season

By Agronometrics | 14 June 2024

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Peruvian avocado season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The 2024 Peruvian avocado season commenced with harvesting in late March in Jayanca, located in northern Peru. Despite this early start, farms in Olmos, also in the north, faced delays, with many not beginning their harvest until week 18. Meanwhile, in the southern regions near Lima and Ica, the harvest started around week 14.

avocado volumes by histo 24

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Peru’s diverse climate has significantly influenced avocado production this year. The northern regions experienced unusually warm weather, resulting in smaller fruit sizes. “Due to the hot weather and warm nights, most of the fruit in the north remained small. This was a commercial disaster for some weeks, in which the market was flooded with small fruit while bigger sizes were still making good money,” explained Mirko Infantes from Pacific Produce. In contrast, the southern regions enjoyed relatively normal weather, leading to more typical fruit size distribution.

The demand for Peruvian avocados in the United States has been strong, driven by attractive fixed prices offered in Peru. The robust US demand is underscored by the market’s readiness to pay higher prices for quality produce, making it an enticing destination for Peruvian exporters.

Keith Barnard, senior vice president of global sourcing for Mission Produce, highlighted the impact of these market dynamics. “Although Peru is historically one of the strongest origins during the summer, the industry has projected a shorter and smaller crop for the 2024 Peruvian season, mainly due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon,” Barnard noted. To manage this, Mission Produce is leveraging a diversified sourcing strategy, drawing from California, Mexico, and Colombia to supplement its Peruvian supply and maintain quality and reliability.

The company has capitalized on favorable conditions in California, where springtime weather has led to a plentiful fruit set. The state’s above-normal rainfall over the past two winters has positively impacted avocado orchards, resulting in excellent fruit quality.

avocado volumes by origi 15

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

As of mid June, the Peruvian avocado volumes have been consistently lower than last year, with a reported 15% deficit since the beginning of the year. This reduction in supply has naturally led to higher prices, particularly for smaller-sized avocados. “For several weeks now, we have been seeing much lower volumes than last year, especially for the smaller sizes. Prices are therefore much higher than at the same time last year, and relatively good for the season,” noted François Bellivier, development manager at Capexo.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.

Witten by Sarah Ilyas

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