Agronometrics in Charts: The Impact of New U.S. Tariffs on Blueberries – A Strategic Setback for the Export Industry

The recent decision by Donald Trump’s administration to impose tariffs on blueberry imports marks a new chapter in the international trade of this fruit. Although the specific implementation details are still under discussion, the message is clear: the main exporters to the U.S. market — Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Canada — will now face a new economic barrier that threatens to stall the sustained growth the industry has experienced over the past decade.

A Tax That Acts Like a Drop in Demand

From an economic perspective, tariffs function as an artificial reduction in demand. For exporters, a 10% tariff is, in practical terms, equivalent to losing 10% of their value in the destination market.

If we use average annual growth of import value to the U.S. — around 15% over the past 10 years — as a benchmark, a 10% tariff effectively rolls the industry back by about eight months. This setback might seem manageable on paper, but it becomes alarming when considering the increasing volume of fruit on the way.

The Double Blow: Less Demand, More Supply

The true complexity of this scenario lies in the combination of two opposing forces: a reduction in effective demand (due to the tariff) and a steady increase in supply, which will not stop overnight. If imports grow by 10% and effective demand falls by 10%, the resulting imbalance could translate into a price reduction of nearly 20% compared to the previous year.

For many producers and exporters, a drop of this magnitude could mean the difference between operating profitably or going into the red. Especially in an environment where logistics, labor, and financial costs are already under pressure, this situation only exacerbates the structural fragility faced by many in the sector.

Pathways to Mitigate the Impact

Unfortunately, there are no quick fixes to ensure profitability. The most immediate reaction that many export-focused economies will likely have is to devalue their currencies in order to soften the blow — a move that can improve competitiveness by increasing the returns in local currency. However, this strategy carries its own risks, including the potential for increased domestic inflation.

From the ground level, producers should focus on optimizing the value of what they export. This includes prioritizing only the highest-quality fruit and removing older or underperforming varieties that are less likely to command premium prices. Cost-efficiency will become a key differentiator.

In the medium to long term, the industry’s best strategy lies in accelerating investment in demand creation. This means building consumer awareness, increasing consumption occasions, and promoting the health and versatility of blueberries. Only by expanding demand at a pace that matches or exceeds supply growth can the sector return to a sustainable growth trajectory.

Conclusion

The prospect of tariffs on blueberries bound for the U.S. is more than a temporary hurdle — it represents a structural shock that challenges the very foundation of the industry’s recent growth model. While not insurmountable, this challenge demands a coordinated, strategic response from across the supply chain. Those who act early to adapt — by managing costs, rebalancing supply, and investing in demand — will be best positioned to weather the turbulence and emerge stronger in a more competitive global landscape.

Written by Colin Fain