Agronometrics in Charts: Impending East Coast Port Strike Poised to Disrupt Fresh Produce Supply Chain

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the US fresh produce industry. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Operations at 36 ports across the United States are set to come to a halt starting October 1 due to the lack of a labor agreement in place between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). These ports include Baltimore, Boston, Charleston, Hampton Roads, Houston, Jacksonville, Miami, Mobile, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia, Savannah, Tampa and Wilmington. The ports in question are currently operated under a contract between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) that expires at Midnight, September 30. At this time, both sides are signaling their belief that a strike will occur and no new offers will be made prior to October 1. The ILA’s initial demands included a 77% wage hike over a six-year contract, with the labor group arguing that the increased pay would make up for the surge in U.S. inflation in recent years. Yet the differences are not only over pay. To protect job security, the ILA is demanding a complete ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container movements used in the loading or unloading of cargo at the 36 ports. 

The looming strike scheduled to commence at the beginning of next week in case negotiations fail to find a resolution may have an impact on more than half of all containerized goods coming in and going out of the United States., posing significant risks to industries reliant on timely shipments, including fresh produce. Republican Senator Ted Cruz cited an analysis by JPMorgan which predicted that a port strike could lead to a loss of $5 billion per day for the U.S economy and cautioned that the U.S. “teeters on the brink of the first union strike among East and Gulf Coast ports since 1977.”

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

An extended closure of ports, along the East and Gulf Coasts could spell disaster for the produce sector in particular. These ports play a role in processing 56% of imports into America, a significant portion of which consists of perishable items such as fruits and vegetables. With even minor delays, highly perishable items such as fresh berries could spoil before reaching their destinations. Such interruptions would inevitably lead to product shortages at outlets and wholesale suppliers, driving up prices for consumers and straining the supply chain.

Fresh produce heavily depends on a tight logistical window to maintain freshness. A strike could force importers to reroute shipments to West Coast ports, adding delays and complicating transportation. Additionally, refrigeration costs would rise as products sit at ports or in transit for longer periods. This domino effect could lead to significant price increases for both retailers and consumers. If a disruption were to occur due to a strike, it could lead to a backlog that may take weeks to address according to analysts. Projections suggest that it might take four to six days for each day of the strike to clear the resulting shipping congestion.The challenge would be exacerbated by limited capacity at West Coast ports, which would struggle to absorb diverted shipments.

Moreover, delays in the delivery of crucial supplies, such as packaging materials and refrigeration equipment, could further impair the ability of producers to get goods to market.

The anticipated strike comes at a critical juncture for the U.S. economy. Inflation is beginning to stabilize and a surge in shipping costs triggered by the strike could reignite inflationary pressures. Fresh produce is already subject to price fluctuations due to weather and market demand and could see even greater volatility. Higher shipping costs could also be passed down the supply chain which would lead to inflated prices at grocery stores. Some retailers have already taken steps to mitigate the impact of a potential strike by stocking up on goods ahead of time. However, fresh produce is unique in that it cannot be stored for extended periods. Industry experts have expressed concern that any prolonged disruption could erode consumer confidence and undermine efforts to stabilize food prices.

At present, the fresh produce industry—and the broader U.S. economy is holding its breath, anticipating what comes next. The next few days will be critical in determining whether the strike is averted or if the country’s supply chains, particularly for perishable goods, are thrown into chaos.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.

Written by Sarah Ilyas